No. Many people are awarded their benefits at the initial application level, or upon appeal on Reconsideration. In terms of the total number of claimants who are awarded benefits each year, most of those people win their benefits at one of these initial levels.
However, Social Security denies approximately 2/3 of the people who apply for Social Security Disability and Disability Insurance Benefits. A great many of those who are denied give up, and do not appeal. Of those who do appeal, only approximately 12% are awarded their benefits on reconsideration. (In some states there is no reconsideration appeal, and the case proceeds directly to the hearing level after an initial denial). Most people who appeal the first time and seek reconsideration will appeal a second time, and request a hearing.
Every year, hundreds of thousands of people are forced to request hearings before Administrative Law Judges in order to obtain their benefits. The great majority of these claimants will have been denied twice before they appear at an ALJ hearing. However if you have not applied for benefits you should not assume that you will be denied. In some states your chances of winning at the initial application level are better than 40%. But if you are denied, be sure to keep appealing.
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